50-дневное путешествие в Италию и Португалию. Сеем разумное, доброе, вечное Е. Е. Румянцева Новая книга ведущего российского экономиста Е.Е.Румянцевой посвящена правдивому и всестороннему анализу перспектив развития российской экономики на базе выявления и анализа причин застойных явлений и отсталых для народа "нововведений", которые только способствуют дальнейшему процветанию коррупции и вымиранию существенной части населения России в мирное время при тушении пожаров, в ДТП на российских дорогах, при отравлении некачественными лекарствами и алкоголем, при оказании несвоевременной медицинской помощи и распространении по всему миру, где не создаются необходимые барьеры зашиты, товаров, разрушающих наше здоровье и приводящих к преждевременной смерти. В издании на конкретных статистических данных, сопоставляемых с ситуацией в ведущих странах мира, проводится главная мысль, что уровень жизни населения должен стать главной заботой руководства страны и регионов на ближайшую перспективу, а производительность труда зависит как от цены труда, так и от преодоления иждивенческого...
A Study on (a,c,d) Policy Queues C. Baburaj The objective of this work is to study the behaviour of some queueing systems operating under the control limit policy (a,c,d) $. In a queueing system it may be possible to exercise control over the service mechanism, the service policy and such other configurations in order that the system performance may attain optimal value in a certain sense. Controllable optimization models have been extensively used in the design of problems arising in several applied areas such as production process, telecommunication networks, etc. The performance measures of the associated queueing systems often occur in the objective functions and/or in the constraints of the optimization models. The solution of certain optimization problems depends partly on the concavity and convexity properties of these measures. The earliest effort involving queueing control in the literature is due to Romani (1957). The variable under control was the number of servers in an M/M/c queue. Bohm and...
American option pricing Adriana Ocejo An American option is a financial contract between two agents, who agree to buy or sell an asset at a fixed strike price at any time before a specified expiration date. When is the optimal time to exercise the option in order to maximize revenue? What is the price of such contract? This work aims to answer these questions from a rigorous mathematical perspective while still in a comprehensive way. It develops the Arbitrage-free Pricing Theory, and set the American option price as an optimal stopping problem. There is a self-contained treatment of the existence and characterization of the solution of optimal stopping problems for homogeneous Markov processes. Central to the presentation is to transfer the optimal stopping problem, representing the price of the American option, to a free-boundary formulation by means of the Markovian structure of the stock price process. Then, it is derived the optimal stopping rule by the first passage time of the geometric Brownian motion to a...
An Essential Guide to Business Statistics Dawn A. Willoughby In a business context, we frequently collect information with a variety of different objectives in mind. However, business??“related information, also referred to as data, has no practical use unless it can be properly processed and understood. We need st
Asymptotic Matrix Methods Olga Dunajeva The exact distributions of multivariate statistics used for the inference in multivariate analysis are usually not known or quite difficult to handle. The topic of this book belongs to the area of approximation of unknown distributions through classical distributions and to the related estimation problems. The methods used here are based on concepts of matrix algebra like the Kronecker product, the vec-operator and the matrix derivative. The multivariate normal distribution and the class of elliptical distributions are examined. The asymptotic variance of the sample correlation coefficient is calculated using approximate linearization. Some applications of the asymptotic distribution of the sample correlation coefficient are considered for populations with different distributions. The main term of the bias of the shape parameter of the asymmetric normal distribution and the Lauter's F-statistic was found using the Taylor expansion. Simulation experiments are described and the...
Biostatistical Methods John M. Lachin Praise for the First Edition ". . . an excellent textbook . . . an indispensable reference for biostatisticians and epidemiologists."—International Statistical Institute A new edition of the definitive guide to classical and modern methods of biostatistics Biostatistics consists of various quantitative techniques that are essential to the description and evaluation of relationships among biologic and medical phenomena. Biostatistical Methods: The Assessment of Relative Risks, Second Edition develops basic concepts and derives an expanded array of biostatistical methods through the application of both classical statistical tools and more modern likelihood–based theories. With its fluid and balanced presentation, the book guides readers through the important statistical methods for the assessment of absolute and relative risks in epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with categorical, count, and event–time data. Presenting a broad scope of coverage and the latest...
Call Center Staffing and Shift Optimization Cihangir Ertaban Inbound call center problems need decisions in four main areas; the number of incoming calls, necessary number of agents to handle these calls, shift starting times for the operations and the number of agents to be allocated to each shift. Call center models mainly cover these areas seperately. This study approaches to the problem with an integrated Markovian approximation, heuristic supported simulation and optimization model. Incoming demand data is adapted from a private Turkish Bank and an application of the model is conducted. Moreover, probabilistic lunch breaks are introduced to the optimization part of the model. Finally, the model can be used as an easy decision support tool for the call center managers.
Can Market Volume Help In Predicting Share Market Volatility? Dorbor Hagba This book explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily stock return volatility of an aggregate of all stocks traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study is largely inspired by the work of Chris BrookThe volume of shares traded might be as important as the change in a market index since substantial price increases and decreases are often accompanied by heavy trading activitys (1998).The results of this study project indicate that augmenting models of volatility with measures of lagged volume leads only to fairly small improvements in forecasting performance. The report also shows that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is vulnerable to financial turmoil in other major markets.
Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer Judea Pearl Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer Judea Pearl, Computer Science and Statistics, University of California Los Angeles, USA Madelyn Glymour, Philosophy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA and Nicholas P. Jewell, Biostatistics
Crop Climate Simulation Modelling M. Sayedur Rahman and M. A. Basher Mian A stochastic model based on first-order Markov chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall. The model is capable of simulating daily rainfall data of any length, based on the estimated transitional probabilities, mean, standard deviation and skew coefficients of rainfall amounts. A study of rainfall probability is an approach to sound planning for any variation of rainfall either small or large. The simulation model has been used successfully to estimate daily rainfall. The Multivariate logistic regression is used to estimate the probability that it is raining. The logistic regression technique is used to compare between the actual and simulation results for a rainfall from January to December in Bangladesh. The probability of occurrence of rainfall is of vital importance in efficient planning and execution of water use program. This study describes a crop-climate simulation model under rainfed conditions in Bangladesh to be used as a tool for analyzing growth and yield to help...
Differential Item and Test Functioning and Language Translation Larry Price Often, educational and psychological measurement instruments must be translated from one language to another when they are administered to different cultural groups. The translation process often necessarily introduces measurement inequivalence. Therefore, an examination may be said to be culturally biased if the test provides a consistent advantage to one particular race or culture through the manner in which the test items are written. One-thousand American and one-thousand one hundred thirty-four Japanese examinees participating in a scuba diving certification course completed a standardized criterion mastery test for certification. Differential Functioning of Items and Tests (DFIT) proposed by Raju, van der Linden, and Fleer (1995) was used to detect Differential Item and Test Functioning (DIF/DTF). Results from the study support the idea that the translation process contributed little to the cause/explanation for DIF/DTF. Another possible and more influential cause of DIF/DTF...
Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices of Singapore Camille Krisca Roncal and Anne Marie Go The changes observed in the electricity markets over the past decade brought about developments in the field of electricity modelling. In this book, traditional ARIMA models and Wavelet-ARIMA models are applied to the Singapore electricity market, Asia's first liberalized electricity market. Forecasting will be done for each electricity price modelling technique and the adequacy of the models is tested through forecast accuracy. The comparison of forecast accuracy of the models is done across different data behaviors.
Forestry Statistics and Research Methods Onofre S. Corpuz and Aurora S. Corpuz Illustrations, examples and easy to understand presentations of statistical procedures and research methods have dealt with this book. Analysis of variance made easy through computer base statistical analysis. Descriptive statistics dealing with group and ungroup data have been clearly discussed. Data collection, presentation, analysis, interpretations, sampling technique, measures of central tendencies, position, variability, normal distribution of data, skewness and kurtosis have been fully presented. Discussion on Inferential statistics includes; one-way and two-way classification analysis, assumptions underlying ANOVA, factorial experiments, mean comparison, and regression-correlation analysis with some output from SAS. The book also provide Problem Set to test the comprehension and retention of students and any one who may use it for research purposes.
Hydrodynamic scaling limit of continuum solid-on-solid model Anamaria Savu Interacting particle systems are stochastic processes proposed by statistical mechanics for the movement of particles at the microscopic scale, with the aim to explain certain physical phenomena. The book discuses the continuum solid-on-solid model, also known as the fourth-order Ginzurg-Landau model, a model developed to understand the relaxation to equilibrium of a crystal surface through diffusion. With rigorous arguments the hydrodynamic scaling limit of continuum solid-on-solid model is shown to be a fourth-order, nonlinear partial differential equation. The fluctuation-dissipation equation of the model is established due to the mathematical result that the model exact functions form a subspace of codimension one in the space of closed functions. Connections between the spaces of closed and exact functions for the second-order Ginzburg-Landau model and algebraic topology are described.
Limiting Behavior of Interacting Particle Systems Matteo Ortisi This book, addressed to researchers and students interested in interacting particle systems, is a study on the application of a law of large numbers and stability criteria to understand the asymptotic behavior of particle systems. The aim is to investigate the limiting behavior of a stochastic interacting particle system both as the size of the population N grows to infinity,being the time t fixed,and t grows to infinity,being N fixed. The limiting behavior as the size N grows to infinity is achieved as a law of large numbers for the empirical process associated with the interacting particle system,while the long time behavior is characterized in terms of the convergence of the particle distribution to an invariant distribution. By applying the same criterion for the convergence to the invariant measure to the continuum time version of the Minority Game, an upper bound for the asymptotic behavior of the waiting time for reaching the stationary state is obtained.
Long-Range Dependence of Markov Chains Kristine Joy Carpio Long-range dependence in discrete and continuous time Markov chains over a countable state space is defined via embedded renewal processes brought about by visits to a fixed state. In the discrete time chain, solidarity properties are obtained and long-range dependence of functionals are examined. On the other hand, the study of LRD of continuous time chains is defined via the number of visits in a given time interval. Long-range dependence of Markov chains over a non-countable state space is also carried out through positive Harris chains. Examples of these chains are presented, with particular attention given to long-range dependent Markov chains in single-server queues, namely, the waiting times of GI/G/1 queues and queue lengths at departure epochs in M/G/1 queues. The presence of long-range dependence in these processes is dependent on the moment index of the lifetime distribution of the service times. These processes of waiting times and queue sizes are...
Medical Statistics from Scratch: An Introduction for Health Professionals David Bowers Correctly understanding and using medical statistics is a key skill for all medical students and health professionals. In an informal and friendly style, Medical Statistics from Scratch provides a practical foundation for everyone whose first interest is
Model Choice or Hypotheses Testing? Pietro Schena This book points the attention on a very crucial topic in Statistics - Model Selection - from a Bayesian point of view. In particular we are interested in analyzing the way in which we have to think and rationalize, when dealing with a problem of model choice. In the Classical background, this problem is strictly related to the field of hypotheses testing, since most of the tools used by Classical statisticians, to support such type of decision, are tests over parameters in the model or likelihood ratios. In spite of this, Bayesian theory allows us to tackle this problem in a more general setting that does not necessarily coincide with the hypotheses testing approach, leading us to the point that a threshold between these two settings is needed. However it is not clear yet where the hypotheses testing ends, and the model selection begins. A possible key to the solution of this matter lies on the definition of a statistical model, and more specifically of a nested...
Monte Carlo method for linear and nonlinear boundary value problems Abdujabar Rasulov and Gulnora Raimova Availability of multiprocessor computers, allows us to solve many complex problems using Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo methods have been further developed to solve a variety of multidimensional integrals, linear and nonlinear boundary value problems. In monograph we used the deep connections between differential equations and random processes. This connection has been known long ago, the results of the theory of differential equations have been widely used in the theory of probability and vice versa. The solutions of large class linear and nonlinear equations of elliptic and parabolic type may be represented in the form of integrals over the trajectories of Markov process. In the current work we study the approaches connected with simple and branching Markov processes. We obtained effective unbiased estimators for the solutions. Constructed numerical algorithms are strict proved and used for the solution of problems of mathematical physics. This book meant for specialists of...